RAK and AUH dominate — UAE markets grew 10–118% while GCC peers averaged 18–68% value growth
Price Change by Market (%)
UAE leads on capital appreciation; Qatar & Bahrain show mild corrections after World Cup / post-supply surge
Market
Txn Vol
Txn Value
Price YoY
Rent YoY
Supply
Outlook
Dubai
206K
AED 431B H1
+13%
+7%
44K delivered
BULLISH
Abu Dhabi
7,154 Q3
AED 25.3B Q3
+34.8%
+22%
7K delivered
BULLISH
Ras Al Khaimah
N/A (value only)
AED 15B
+32–39%
+11%
807 units
BULLISH
Riyadh
13K Q3
SAR 17.6B Q3
+7.5%
+11.8%
16K delivered
NEUTRAL
Jeddah
7,500 Q3
SAR 8.7B Q3
+1.6%
+5.6%
5K delivered
NEUTRAL
Dammam
3K Q3 (est.)
SAR 3.2B Q3
+5.8%
+4.8%
1,800 delivered
EMERGING
Qatar
6,831
QAR 26.6B
-2%
-2.4%
4,500 H2
NEUTRAL
Bahrain
29,777
BHD 1.6B
-4.4%
-1.4%
Moderate
NEUTRAL
Oman (Muscat)
N/A (land-led)
OMR 2.8B
+18.7%
+7.5%
Low
BULLISH
GCC Real Estate FY2025 Summary: Volume and value records broken across the board. UAE markets dominate growth with RAK (+118% value) and AUH (+110% value Q3) leading. KSA markets show solid price growth despite volume normalisation from 2024 peaks. Qatar and Bahrain show a paradox — decade-high transaction volumes alongside mild price corrections, reflecting supply absorption phases. Oman emerges as a quiet outperformer with residential price index up +18.7%.
Dubai 2025 Delivered
44K
5-yr high
Dubai 2026 Pipeline
~69K
48% likely
KSA 3-City 2025
22,800
units delivered
KSA Pipeline 2026-27
105K
planned units
Qatar H2 Pipeline
4,500
units
RAK 2026-2029
14,000
units pipeline
2025 Residential Supply Delivered
Dubai delivered a 5-year high; RAK at 807 units is critically undersupplied relative to demand
KSA 3-City Pipeline 2026-2027
Riyadh pipeline dominates — 57K units 2026-27 will test affordability in a market already rent-frozen
Dubai Supply Reality Check 2023–2027 (Units)
Historical slippage rate ~38%; forecast 69K for 2026 will likely deliver ~40K — price-supportive
Supply Pipeline Analysis: Dubai's 44K units delivered in 2025 marks a 5-yr high, yet still only ~62% of forecast. The 2026 pipeline of ~69K units has a 48% delivery probability based on historical lag. KSA's planned 105K units (2026-27, 3 cities) represents an ambitious uplift — developer finance conditions and Vision 2030 timeline will be critical determinants. RAK's 14K pipeline (2026-29) will ease price pressure but demand absorption looks feasible given the tourism and gaming (Wynn) catalysts.
Dubai Avg Price
AED 1,871
+13% /sqft
RAK Prime
AED 2,428
+32% /sqft
Riyadh Apt
SAR 6,160
+7.5% /sqm
Qatar Apt
QAR 12,865
-2% /sqm
Bahrain Apt
BHD 547
-4.4% /sqm
Oman Resi Index
+18.7%
Q3 2025
Residential Price Change YoY (%)
AUH and RAK are the strongest capital growth plays in the GCC; Bahrain and Qatar in correction
Rental Yield Comparison (%)
AUH apts yield 7.63% — higher than Dubai; Muscat competitive at 7.5% with lower entry prices
Rent Change YoY by City (%)
AUH and DXB warehouses lead on rent growth; KSA rent freeze capping Riyadh; Gulf states softening
Pricing & Rents: A two-speed GCC emerges — UAE and Oman markets in strong appreciation cycles (AUH +34.8%, RAK +32%, Oman +18.7%) while Qatar and Bahrain see mild price softening despite record transaction volumes. Rental yields remain compelling across UAE: AUH at 7.63% and Dubai at 7.24%. KSA shows structural rent growth (Riyadh apt +11.8%) driven by population growth and affordability constraints pushing buyers to renting.
Population
10.0M
+3.6% YoY
GDP 2024
USD 509B
+4.2% growth
Inflation
2.3%
Brent ~$75
Total RE Txns
230K+
FY2025
Total RE Value
AED 470B+
FY2025
Avg Price Change
+18%
Residential avg
Avg Rent Change
+10%
Residential avg
GDP Growth
+4.2%
2024
UAE RE Transactions by Emirate 2025
Dubai commands ~90% of UAE RE volume; AUH surging; RAK small but fastest-growing by value
UAE Price Change by Emirate (%)
AUH and RAK price cycles started later — larger catch-up potential vs Dubai's mature rally
Key RE Indicators
Transaction Volume Growth+18%
Residential Prices+18%
Rental Rates+10%
Off-Plan Share70%
Foreign Buyer Share45%
Commercial Occupancy88%
UAE Market Overview: UAE is the GCC's most liquid RE market. Three distinct sub-markets — Dubai (volume/scale, 206K+ transactions), Abu Dhabi (rapid catch-up cycle, +34.8% apt prices), RAK (yield play with supply scarcity, +32–39% price growth). Foreign buyer appetite remains robust at 45%+ of transactions. Commercial sector at 88% occupancy signals continued economic momentum. Off-plan dominance at 70% reflects developer confidence and buyer speculative appetite.
Population
4.0M
+6.2% YoY (Sep 2025)
GDP Growth
~3.5%
2025 est.
Inflation
~3.4%
2025
Transactions
206K+
+18% YoY
H1 Value
AED 431B
+25% YoY
Sales Price
AED 1,871
+13% /sqft
Off-Plan Share
68%
of transactions
Avg Rental Yield
7.24%
Apartments
Transaction Volume 2020–2025
5-year CAGR of ~35%; 2025 volume nearly 5x 2020 — structural demand, not cyclical spike
H1 2025 Value by Type (AED B)
Off-plan apartments dominate at AED 102B; villa off-plan at AED 67B reflects luxury demand shift
Top Areas by Sales Volume
Marina and Business Bay capture institutional & investor demand; JVC leads affordable segment
Sales Mix: Off-Plan vs Ready
68% off-plan signals high developer & buyer confidence; completion risk key watchpoint for 2026-27
Key RE Indicators
Transaction Volume Growth+18%
Price Growth+13%
Rental Growth+7%
Office Occupancy93%
Retail Occupancy98%
Warehouse Rent Growth+13%
Dubai FY2025: Dubai remains the world's most active luxury RE market by transaction count. Off-plan dominates at 68–70% of volume driven by aggressive developer launches and strong investor appetite. 44,000 units delivered (5-yr high) but only ~62% of forecast — supply consistently trails projections. Population crossed 4M in Sep 2025, sustaining organic demand. Office (92–94% occupancy) and retail (98%) underscore a robust economic backdrop. Warehouse rents up +13% reflect e-commerce and logistics expansion.
Prices bottomed in 2019-20; sustained rally since 2021
Transaction Value (AED B)
Value outpacing volume — avg ticket size rising sharply
Population
3.8M
+4.1% YoY
GDP Growth
+4.5%
2025 est.
Inflation
2.1%
2025
Q3 Transactions
7,154
+76% YoY
Q3 Value
AED 25.3B
+110% YoY
Apt Price Change
+34.8%
YoY
Apt Rental Yield
7.63%
Outperforms Dubai
Off-Plan Share
73%
of transactions
YoY Growth Breakdown Q3 2025 (%)
Off-plan apartment volumes up 182% — AUH is in the early-to-mid stage of an off-plan cycle
Top Districts by Sales Volume
Al Reem Island and Yas Island absorb 40% of sales — waterfront / leisure-linked premium product
AUH Price & Rent Change (%)
Rental growth at +22% lagging price growth at +34.8% — yields compressing but still at 7.6%+
Key RE Indicators
Txn Volume Growth+76%
Transaction Value Growth+110%
Apt Price Growth+34.8%
Rental Growth+22%
Off-Plan Share73%
Units Delivered 20257K
Abu Dhabi FY2025: Abu Dhabi is in a record-breaking cycle. Q3 2025 was the highest transaction quarter in history with 7,154 deals worth AED 25.3B — a +110% value surge YoY. Off-plan at 73% of sales dominates; Al Reem Island and Yas Island account for 40% of volume. Apartment prices surged +34.8% YoY — the strongest price growth in the GCC. Rental yields at 7.63% outperform Dubai, attracting yield-focused investors. Infrastructure catalysts: Zayed National Museum opening, Saadiyat expansion, and Etihad Arena anchoring Yas demand.
📈 Abu Dhabi — Historical Trends
Year range:
2019 – 2025
Annual Transaction Volume
AUH cycle started later than Dubai — acceleration from 2023
Apartment Price Growth YoY (%)
Price correction 2019-20; explosive re-rating from 2023 onward
Population
416K
+4.2% YoY
GDP Growth
+4%
p.a. to 2027
Txn Value FY2025
AED 15B
+118% YoY
Prime Apt Price
AED 2,428
Cycle high /sqft
Apt Price Growth
+32–39%
YoY
2025 Supply
807
Very low
Price Growth by Area (%)
Citywide apartments up 39% — strongest return in the GCC; Wynn Resort effect driving Al Marjan premium
Supply Pipeline 2025–2029 (Units)
2025 at 807 units is critically low; pipeline ramps sharply in 2026-27 but demand likely absorbs
Key RE Indicators
Txn Value Growth+118%
Apt Price Growth+36.7%
Branded Resi Share25%+
Wynn Resort Progress$3.9B committed
Villa Price Growth+11%
Ras Al Khaimah FY2025: RAK is the GCC's highest-growth micro-market. Supply scarcity (only 807 units delivered in 2025) versus surging demand driven by the Wynn Resort ($3.9B committed) and Al Marjan Island masterplan. Prime apartment prices reached AED 2,428/sqft — a cycle high. The 14,000-unit pipeline (2026–2029) will eventually ease pricing pressure, but demand fundamentals — tourism, gaming, branded residential segment (25%+) — suggest sustained absorption. Mina Al Arab leads growth at +35%.
📈 Ras Al Khaimah — Historical Trends
Year range:
2019 – 2025
Transaction Value (AED B)
+855% over 8 years; Wynn announcement (2022) inflection point
Apt Price Growth YoY (%)
Flat pre-2022, then fastest acceleration in GCC
Population
36.4M
+1.9% YoY
GDP 2024
USD 1.06T
+2.6% growth
Vision 2030 Projects
$1.3T
pipeline
Inflation
1.6%
2025
3-City Txns Q3
~23.5K
Q3 2025
3-City Value Q3
SAR 29.5B
Q3 2025
Avg Price Change
+5%
3-city avg
GDP Growth
+2.6%
2024
KSA City Transaction Volume Q3 2025
Riyadh dominates by volume but fell -44% YoY; Dammam is the momentum market with +58.5% YoY
KSA City Price Changes (%)
Riyadh villas strongest at +10.1%; Dammam apt price growth at +5.8% from affordable base
Key RE Indicators
Riyadh Txn Vol (QoQ)+18.7%
Jeddah Txn Vol (QoQ)+10.3%
Dammam Txn Vol (QoQ)+37%
Vision 2030 Completion~35%
Affordable Housing GapHigh
Rent Freeze Impact (Riyadh)Sep 2025
KSA Market Overview: KSA's RE market is bifurcating. Riyadh faces affordability pressure — a 5-year rent freeze imposed Sep 2025 signals government intervention as rental costs reached critical levels. Jeddah is stabilising with modest price growth (+1.6% apt) and improving transaction volumes. Dammam emerges as a value market with the strongest QoQ transaction volume growth (+37%) in Q3. Vision 2030 mega-projects sustain long-term structural demand, though 35% completion vs $1.3T pipeline creates execution risk.
Population
7.7M
+3.2% YoY
GDP per Capita
SAR 67K
est. 2025
Inflation
2.1%
2025
Q3 Transactions
13,000
-44.3% YoY
Q3 Value
SAR 17.6B
Q3 2025
Apt Price
SAR 6,160
+7.5% /sqm
Villa Price
SAR 5,500
+10.1% /sqm
Apt Rent Growth
+11.8%
YoY
Price Change — Sales vs Rents (%)
Rents growing faster than prices — affordability pressure that triggered Sep 2025 rent freeze
Riyadh Pipeline 2025–2027 (Units)
57K units planned 2026-27 vs 16K in 2025 — significant supply surge; expect price moderation
Key RE Indicators
Apt Price Growth+7.5%
Villa Price Growth+10.1%
Apt Rent Growth+11.8%
Villa Rent Growth+10.7%
2026–27 Pipeline57K units
Rent Freeze (Sep 2025)Implemented
Riyadh FY2025: Riyadh's market faces an affordability inflection. Q3 2025 transaction volumes fell -44.3% YoY (vs record 2024 base) but QoQ momentum improved +18.7%. Rent prices hit critical levels prompting government intervention — a 5-year rent freeze from Sep 2025. Prices continue appreciating: villa prices +10.1%, apt prices +7.5%. The 2026–27 pipeline of 57K units (35K Riyadh + 22K) will be the key supply-side test. Long-term demand anchors: 7.7M population growing at +3.2%, NEOM and other Vision 2030 giga-projects drawing expat workforce.
📈 Riyadh — Historical Trends
Year range:
2019 – 2025
Apartment Price per sqm (SAR)
Steady appreciation since 2021; Vision 2030 structural demand
Apartment Rent Growth YoY (%)
Rents rising faster than prices — affordability pressure building
Population
4.7M
+2.1% YoY
Inflation
1.4%
Lowest KSA city
Q3 Transactions
7,500
+10.3% QoQ
Q3 Value
SAR 8.7B
+9% QoQ
Apt Price
SAR 4,360
+1.6% /sqm
Villa Price
SAR 5,140
+3.1% /sqm
Apt Rent Growth
+5.6%
YoY
Villa Rent Growth
-2.1%
YoY
City Comparison — Apt & Villa Prices (SAR/sqm)
KSA City Rent Changes (%)
Jeddah villa rents falling -2.1% signal localised oversupply; Riyadh rent freeze limits growth
Key RE Indicators
Apt Price Growth+1.6%
Villa Price Growth+3.1%
Apt Rent Growth+5.6%
Txn Volume QoQ+10.3%
2025 Supply Delivered5K units
Market Stability IndexStabilising
Jeddah FY2025: Jeddah presents as KSA's most stable market — modest price growth (+1.6% apt, +3.1% villa), improving transaction momentum (+10.3% QoQ in Q3), and the lowest inflation of KSA's three major cities (1.4%). Villa rents fell -2.1% reflecting supply overhang in the luxury villa segment. Apartment rents grew +5.6%, indicating a structural shift toward mid-market demand. Jeddah's port economy, tourism (Red Sea development), and role as KSA's commercial capital provide stable long-term demand underpinning.
📈 Jeddah — Historical Trends
Year range:
2019 – 2025
Apartment Price per sqm (SAR)
Moderate appreciation; demand overflow from Riyadh supports market
Transaction Volume (Annual 000s)
Peak 2022-23; modest normalisation in 2024-25
Population
1.25M
Eastern Province 4.9M
GDP Driver
Oil/Petrochem
ARAMCO HQ
Q3 Transactions
~3,000
+37% QoQ
Q3 Value
SAR 3.2B
+67.8% YoY
Apt Price Growth
+5.8%
YoY
Villa Price Growth
+3.2%
YoY
Apt Rent Growth
+4.8%
YoY
Villa Rent Growth
+2.2%
YoY
KSA Cities — Txn Growth Comparison Q3 2025 (%)
Dammam the standout — +37% QoQ and +58.5% YoY signals institutional & end-user demand surge
Key RE Indicators
Txn Volume (QoQ)+37%
Txn Value (YoY)+67.8%
Apt Price Growth+5.8%
Villa Price Growth+3.2%
Affordability vs RiyadhBetter value
2025 Supply Delivered1,800 units
Dammam FY2025: Dammam is KSA's emerging value market. Q3 2025 transaction volume surged +37% QoQ — the strongest momentum of KSA's three major cities — and transaction value grew +67.8% YoY. Affordability relative to Riyadh (apt SAR 3,800/sqm vs 6,160) is driving domestic migration and investor attention. Oil-sector employment (Saudi Aramco HQ) provides a stable demand base. Supply remained constrained at 1,800 units in 2025, supporting price growth. As Riyadh affordability deteriorates, Dammam is positioned to capture spillover demand from the Eastern Province.
📈 Dammam — Historical Trends
Year range:
2019 – 2025
Apt Price Growth YoY (%)
Flat 2019-21; modest recovery; 2025 breakout on affordability story
Transaction Volume Growth YoY (%)
+58.5% YoY in 2025 — strongest momentum of any KSA market
Population
2.93M
+4.1% YoY
GDP per Capita
$84K
Highest GCC
GDP Growth
+2.3%
2025 est.
FY2025 Transactions
6,831
+50% YoY
FY2025 Value
QAR 26.6B
+43.5% ($7.3B)
Apt Avg Price
QAR 12,865
-2% /sqm
Qatar Quarterly Transactions 2024–2025
Consistent acceleration through 2025 — Q3 record of 1,780 txns; absorption is outpacing new supply
Volume Growth vs Price Performance (%)
Volume up strongly; prices soft — classic stabilisation signal post-supply surge, not distress
Key RE Indicators
Txn Volume Growth+50%
Txn Value Growth+43.5%
Apt Price Change-2%
Villa Rent Change-2.4%
Office Grade-A Rent-1.4%
H2 2025 Pipeline4,500 units
Qatar FY2025 — The Volume-Price Paradox: Qatar delivered record transaction activity (6,831 deals, +50% YoY; QAR 26.6B, +43.5%) while property prices declined modestly (apt -2%, villa rent -2.4%). This paradox reflects a post-World Cup supply absorption phase — significant stock delivered 2022–2024 continues to weigh on pricing. The QAR 26.6B value surge is partly driven by land transactions and non-residential deals. Office Grade-A rents dipped -1.4% despite high occupancy. The 4,500-unit H2 2025 pipeline in Lusail and The Pearl will test absorption capacity through 2026.
📈 Qatar — Historical Trends
Year range:
2019 – 2025
Annual Transactions
World Cup peak 2022; post-supply correction 2023-24; recovery 2025
House Price Index Change YoY (%)
Blockade removal (2021) sparked rally; World Cup supply weighed post-2022
Population
1.57M
2025 est.
GDP Growth
+2.1%
2025 est.
Inflation
0.1%
Near-zero
FY2025 Transactions
29,777
+19.8% — decade high
FY2025 Value
BHD 1.6B
+51.6% ($4.2B)
Apt Avg Price
BHD 547
-4.4% /sqm
Volume vs Value Growth (%)
Value (+51.6%) massively outpaces volume (+19.8%) — higher-value deals driving the decade-high figure
Bahrain Sector Performance (%)
Hospitality the bright spot at RevPAR +6.3%; residential prices correcting but volumes healthy
Key RE Indicators
Txn Volume Growth+19.8%
Txn Value Growth+51.6%
Apt Price Change-4.4%
Villa Price Change-3.5%
Hotel RevPAR Growth+6.3%
Hotel Occupancy+2.2%
Bahrain FY2025 — The Paradox Year: Bahrain set a decade-high in both transaction volume (29,777, +19.8%) and value (BHD 1.6B, +51.6%) — yet residential prices fell (apt -4.4%, villa -3.5%). This paradox reflects Bahrain's structural role as a regional affordability play: volume is driven by lower-priced unit sales as Saudi professional demand spills across the King Fahd Causeway. Hospitality is a bright spot — RevPAR +6.3% and hotel occupancy up +2.2% reflect Bahrain's growing events and tourism positioning. Retail occupancy dipped -2%, indicating some demand migration to newer formats.
📈 Bahrain — Historical Trends
Year range:
2019 – 2025
Annual Transaction Volume
2025 decade-high at 29,777; recovery from 2020 trough
Apt Sales Price (BHD/sqm)
Prices peaked 2022; gradual softening while volumes recovered
Population
4.97M
+3% forecast
GDP Growth
+2.5%
2025 est.
Inflation
0.8%
Low
Txn Value
OMR 2.8B
+17.9%
Resi Price Index
+18.7%
Q3 2025
Apt Price Growth
+22.4%
Q3 2025
Oman RE Price Index Q3 2025 (%)
Broad-based growth across all segments — land and apartments outperform; Vision 2040 as catalyst
Muscat Land Price Growth by Governorate (%)
Muscat at +48.3% the clear leader — ILQ visa demand and Integrated Tourism Complexes driving land values
Key RE Indicators
Resi Price Index+18.7%
Apt Price Growth+22.4%
Villa Price Growth+16.5%
Muscat Land Growth+48.3%
Txn Value Growth+17.9%
Muscat Apts Yield7.5%
Oman FY2025 — The Quiet Outperformer: Oman delivered one of the GCC's strongest price performances: residential price index +18.7% Q3, apartments +22.4%, and the standout metric — Muscat land prices +48.3%. Transaction value grew +17.9% to OMR 2.8B. Tourism-linked real estate (Integrated Tourism Complexes) and ILQ visa demand are drawing foreign buyers. Muscat apartment rental yields at 7.5% are competitive with UAE. Oman's low inflation (0.8%) and stable regulatory environment are increasingly attracting institutional interest as an alternative to the UAE's higher-price markets.
📈 Oman — Historical Trends
Year range:
2019 – 2025
RE Price Index YoY (%)
Quiet underperformer until 2023; ILQ visa + Vision 2040 now driving prices
Transaction Value (OMR B)
Consistent growth; suburban demand + Muscat land values leading
GCC Real Estate — Executive Briefing
FY 2025 · All markets · Dostalik Market Intelligence
📈 Top Market Movers — FY 2025
Ranked by transaction value growth YoY
🇦🇪 #1 — Ras Al Khaimah
TXN Value Growth+118% YoY
Total TXN ValueAED 15B
Apt Price Growth+32–39%
Prime Apt /sqftAED 2,428
Supply 2025807 units (low)
OutlookBooming
🇦🇪 #2 — Abu Dhabi
TXN Value Growth+110% Q3 YoY
Q3 2025 ValueAED 25.3B
Apt Price Growth+34.8%
Rental Yield (Apt)7.63%
Off-Plan Share73%
OutlookRecord
🇧🇭 #3 — Bahrain
TXN Value Growth+51.6% YoY
Total TXN ValueBHD 1.6B
TXN Volume29,777 (decade high)
Apt Price−4.4% YoY
Hotel RevPAR+6.3%
OutlookNeutral
🇶🇦 #4 — Qatar
TXN Value Growth+43.5% YoY
FY2025 ValueQAR 26.6B ($7.3B)
FY2025 Transactions6,831 (+50%)
Apt Price−2% YoY
Villa Rent−2.4% YoY
OutlookStabilising
🇸🇦 #5 — Dammam
TXN Value Growth+67.8% YoY
Q3 ValueSAR 3.2B
Q3 Vol Growth+37% QoQ / +58.5% YoY
Apt Price Growth+5.8%
Apt Rent Growth+4.8%
OutlookEmerging
🇴🇲 #6 — Oman
TXN Value Growth+17.9% YoY
TXN ValueOMR 2.8B
Resi Price Index+18.7% Q3
Apt Price Growth+22.4%
Muscat Land+48.3%
OutlookBullish
📋 GCC Market Scorecard
All 9 markets — key metrics at a glance
Market
Pop.
GDP Growth
TXN Value
Price YoY
Rent YoY
Yield
Signal
Dubai
4.0M
~3.5%
AED 431B H1
+13%
+7%
7.24%
BULLISH
Abu Dhabi
3.8M
+4.5%
AED 25.3B Q3
+34.8%
+22%
7.63%
RECORD
RAK
416K
+4%
AED 15B
+32–39%
+11%
6.8%
BOOMING
Riyadh
7.7M
+2.6%
SAR 17.6B Q3
+7.5%
+11.8%
5.2%
NEUTRAL
Jeddah
4.7M
+2.6%
SAR 8.7B Q3
+1.6%
+5.6%
5.8%
NEUTRAL
Dammam
1.25M
+2.6%
SAR 3.2B Q3
+5.8%
+4.8%
6.1%
EMERGING
Qatar
2.93M
+2.3%
QAR 26.6B
−2%
−2.4%
5.5%
NEUTRAL
Bahrain
1.57M
+2.1%
BHD 1.6B
−4.4%
−1.4%
6.2%
NEUTRAL
Oman
4.97M
+2.5%
OMR 2.8B
+18.7%
+7.5%
7.5%
BULLISH
💡 Key Themes — GCC Real Estate FY 2025
Analyst commentary for client distribution
GROWTH THEME
UAE Dominates Capital Appreciation
AUH +34.8% and RAK +32–39% lead GCC on price growth. Supply scarcity in RAK (807 units 2025) and a record off-plan cycle in AUH are the structural drivers.
RISK THEME
KSA Affordability — Government Intervenes
Riyadh rents hit critical levels — 5-yr freeze imposed Sep 2025. 57K unit pipeline 2026–27 will test price resilience. Vision 2030 provides structural floor.
YIELD THEME
AUH & Muscat Best Risk-Adjusted Yields
AUH apts at 7.63% and Muscat at 7.5% offer the best yield + growth combination. Qatar and Bahrain offer 5.5–6.2% but with price headwinds.
WATCH THEME
Dammam & Oman — Emerging Plays
Dammam +58.5% YoY txn volume growth from affordable base. Oman land prices +48.3% in Muscat. Both markets early-stage with room to run.
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